The Spurious Prospective Associations Model (SPAM): Explaining longitudinal associations due to statistical artifacts

Abstract

Analysis of longitudinal data often relies on models which can be prone to statistical artifacts. We have previously shown that several published prospective associations can be explained by a combination of a general association between constructs, imperfect measurement reliability, and regression to the mean. Here, we formalize our analysis of this type of statistical artifact and introduce the Spurious Prospective Associations Model (SPAM). We show that the SPAM performs better than adjusted cross-lagged effects models to explain several observed prospective associations, including new examples involving loneliness and social anxiety and resilience and depressive symptoms, without assuming any true increasing or decreasing effects between constructs over time. Moreover, unlike the models we challenge, the SPAM is consistent with seemingly paradoxical findings indicating simultaneous increasing and decreasing effects between constructs. We conclude that the SPAM agrees well with observed data and is better supported than competing adjusted cross-lagged effects models in the cases investigated here.