Distribution and Spatial Dependence of Sugar Energy Bioelectricity in the Brazilian Scenario

Abstract

With increasing discussions about energy security and sustainable electricity generation, the supply of biomass resources, such as sugarcane energy, has become increasingly important for regional development. In this study, the impact of spatial dependence and distribution of the supply of sugar-energy bioelectricity in Brazil was examined using a spatial econometric model. Data from ANEEL’s Generation Information System were utilized to represent the Brazilian territory. Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA) was employed as a method, with both bivariate and univariate correlations evaluated. In the scenario analysis, the results indicated a 133% increase in the number of sugarcane bagasse-based power plants in Brazil over the past twenty years (from 189 to 442 power plants), along with a 229% increase in GW potential (from 4.11 to 13.55 GW) over the same period. The results demonstrated that the Brazilian sector is expanding rapidly. Regarding spatial dependence, the results indicated that in Brazil, there is no clear correlation between electricity consumption and sugarcane supply, but the univariate analysis revealed that power availability is spatially connected, with the presence of high-supply clusters in the country. The spatial agglomerations showed an IMoran_Global of 0.543 for intermediate regions and 0.453 for immediate regions. Spatial agglomeration may have a positive effect on improving regional performance by reducing the challenges involved in site selection, licensing, and grid connection. Thus, this work contributes by analyzing the spatial distribution of supply, which can be useful for energy planning. Furthermore, spatial differences and disparities complicate the management and formulation of public policies aimed at regional energy development, requiring spatial methods that identify areas with similar characteristics, such as the one applied in this study.