A Stochastic Approach to Modeling Tidal Creek Evolution: Exploring Environmental Influences on CreekTopologies Through Ensemble Predictions

Abstract

A numerical tool integrating hydrodynamics, vegetation growth, stochastic selection, and Monte-Carlo simulation is developed to predict channel network evolution in a newly inundated back-barrier wetland. Focusing on the formation and evolution of tidal channels, model simulations suggest a clear tendency towards specific creek topologies with high probability despite creek evolution being subject to random perturbations. These creek topologies are primarily determined by wetland topography while the influence of vegetation is secondary. Ensemble results of Monte-Carlo simulations identify threshold points leading to bimodal separation of the emergent creek networks characterized by different complexity and efficiency. This, in turn, assists the recognition of necessary human interventions to encourage the formation of complex and far-reaching creek networks that can promote exchange of materials between estuaries and salt marshes and, hence, maintain salt marsh ecosystem structure and function.