Natural disaster and intergenerational occupational choice in agriculture: Evidence from the US Dust Bowl

Abstract

This paper examines how a natural disaster, the Dust Bowl, shapes occupational choices in farm households across generations. Using full-count US census data, I find that young adult sons shift away from self-employed farming toward wage farm work and nonagricultural sectors after the Dust Bowl. Younger children with affected farming parents are more likely to leave agriculture and earn higher income. Migration and schooling serve as mechanisms, and New Deal relief spending mitigates the Dust Bowl's effects. Overall, the Dust Bowl accelerated occupational reallocation among younger children of farmers and contributed to US mid-20th century structural change.