Section 301 and politics: Analysis of tariff exclusions

Abstract

The Trump administration imposed tariffs on Chinese imports starting in 2018. American firms that rely on Chinese imports were allowed to apply for exclusions for products. In this paper, we investigate political factors affecting the approval rates for these tariff exclusions. We also consider factors that may impact this estimate, such as firm selection into requesting and legitimacy of request. We find that tariff exclusion is increasing in the Republican vote share. Counties with a 10 percentage point higher Republican vote share experience a 10% higher probability of tariff exclusion approval.