Prediction of cardiovascular events in older patients with hypertension in primary care: a cohort study

Abstract

Background Accurate risk stratification identifying patients with hypertension at risk of future cardiovascular disease in primary care would be desirable. Aim To investigate the association between elevated brain natriuretic peptide (BNP), left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) on an electrocardiogram (ECG), and LVH on an echocardiogram and the development of cardiovascular events (CVEs), especially heart failure and all-cause mortality (ACM), in a primary care population with hypertension without symptoms of heart failure. Design and setting A prospective cohort study in five Dutch general practices between 2010–2012 and 2020. Method In total, 530 patients (aged 60–85 years) underwent laboratory testing, ECGs, and echocardiograms at baseline. The incidence of new CVEs and ACM at up to 9 years’ follow-up was recorded by data extraction from the digital information systems. Results Among the 530 participants, 31 (5.8%) developed a coronary event, 44 (8.3%) a cerebrovascular accident, 53 (10.0%) atrial fibrillation, 23 (4.3%) heart failure, and 66 (12.5%) died. Cox regression analyses, adjusting for relevant Framingham covariates, showed that elevated BNP increased the risk of ACM, CVEs, and specifically heart failure independently by 44% (hazard ratio [HR] 1.44, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.07 to 1.94, P = –0.017), 45% (HR 1.45, 95% CI = 1.15 to 1.82, P = 0.002), and 288% (HR 3.88, 95% CI = 2.13 to 7.10, P<0.001), respectively. LVH on ECG increased the risk of ACM independently by 108% (HR 2.08, 95% CI = 1.14 to 3.81, P = 0.017). LVH either on an ECG and/ or echocardiogram increased the risk of heart failure independently by 309% (HR 4.09, 95% CI = 1.34 to 12.49, P = 0.014). Conclusion In primary care patients with hypertension, BNP seems to be an important marker predicting future CVEs, especially heart failure, as well as all-cause mortality.