Proposed probabilistic models of pipe failure in water distribution system

Abstract

All pipes in water supply network are installed underground, so it is difficult to identify pipe failure location during the operation of a system. Prediction of the risk of pipe failure in the water distribution systems is necessary for preparation of reparations and displacement of a pipe network system. Based on the probability of pipe failure, it will be possible to save money and labor cost for water supply companies. Many studies have been conducted on this topic, some of which used experimental models, others used statistical models in which recently many authors used regression model, but almost all the models come up with calculating the pipe failure rate per unit length of pipe in a year. It is not a direct probability of pipe failure. This article reviews various methods to evaluate pipe failure in water distribution systems. Based on that, the authors proposed two models: Regression Logistic Model and Decision Tree Model that would support an effective decision making for detecting the pipe failure and proposing appropriate solutions.