China’s Discursive Strategic Neutrality Position in the Russo-Ukrainian War: Insights from China’s Strategic Narratives

Abstract

The Russo-Ukrainian war has posed a complex geopolitical challenge for China, requiring it to balance a strategic partnership with Russia and economic ties with the West. This study introduces the concept of ‘discursive strategic neutrality’, defined by narrative management and adaptive pragmatism, as the best framework for understanding China’s stance. Using NLP techniques to analyze 712 MFA statements, the research identifies three core themes in China’s official discourse: promoting China’s mediation initiatives, advocating multilateral cooperation, and criticizing Western responses. Sentiment analysis reveals a generally neutral stance, with pro-Russia sentiment peaking during geopolitical tensions. These findings suggest that China’s ‘discursive strategic neutrality’ is a dynamic position that is highly responsive to external geopolitical pressures in order to safeguard its interests and promote China’s broader global agenda.