How could getting it right go so wrong? The 2007 Iran NIE revisited

Abstract

In November 2007, The National Intelligence Council issued an NIE, Iran’s Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities on the scope and status of Iran’s clandestine effort to build a nuclear weapon. Although the NIE remains classified, the descriptions of the Estimate offered in the reports and essays offered in this symposium describe the painstaking efforts made by professionals from across the intelligence community to get both the analysis and presentation of judgments right. The 2007 NIE accurately identified the fact that the Iranian government had suspended its clandestine effort to develop a nuclear weapon.