Econometric modelling for estimating of paddy yield and rice production in Melaka, Malaysia

Abstract

Melaka's rice industry exhibited a slightly poor performance between 1988 and 2019. The paddy parcel area has decreased from 10,418 ha to 1,837 ha in 32 years. Between 1988 and 2015, the crop intensity factor (CIF) was below 50%. Thus, this research will examine the trend of paddy yield and rice productivity in Melaka from 1988 to 2019 and estimated yield and rice output for 2020 to 2030. This study applies production theory. Data were analyzed using multiple regression with OLS estimation. The findings showed that Melaka paddy production reduced during 1998-1999, 2004-2005 and 2008-2009 due to Asian crisis and global financial crisis. The forecasting study used a 95% confidence range for the average growing rate. Even though paddy output increased by 24.6 percent, the amount forecasted for high paddy yield and rice production in 2030 is unachievable due to high agricultural land needed. Nevertheless, the nuclear paddy is expected to produce more paddy and rice in 2030 than present varieties. Thus, the government should support the development of nuclear paddy varieties, as well as expand paddy parcel area in Melaka. This will assist Malaysia achieve its food security goal of 75% rice self-sufficiency level in the Twelfth Malaysia Plan 2021-2025.