Machine learning models to predict submucosal invasion in early gastric cancer based on endoscopy features and standardized color metrics

Abstract

Conventional endoscopy is widely used in the diagnosis of early gastric cancers (EGCs), but the graphical features were loosely defined and dependent on endoscopists’ experience. We aim to establish a more accurate predictive model for infiltration depth of early gastric cancer including a standardized colorimetric system, which demonstrates promising clinical implication. A retrospective study of 718 EGC cases was performed. Clinical and pathological characteristics were included, and Commission Internationale de l’Eclariage (CIE) standard colorimetric system was used to evaluate the chromaticity of lesions. The predicting models were established in the derivation set using multivariate backward stepwise logistic regression, decision tree model, and random forest model. Logistic regression shows location, macroscopic type, length, marked margin elevation, WLI color difference and histological type are factors significantly independently associated with infiltration depth. In the decision tree model, margin elevation, lesion located in the lower 1/3 part, WLI a*color value, b*color value, and abnormal thickness in enhanced CT were selected, which achieved an AUROC of 0.810. A random forest model was established presenting the importance of each feature with an accuracy of 0.80, and an AUROC of 0.844. Quantified color metrics can improve the diagnostic precision in the invasion depth of EGC. We have developed a nomogram model using logistic regression and machine learning algorithms were also explored, which turned out to be helpful in decision-making progress.