Mineral fertilizer market consumption trends

Abstract

The research renders the analysis of the trends in the global mineral fertilizer market. The study aims to define the factors that correlate with fertilizer consumption. Objectives of the study are to analyze the dynamics and structure of demand, supply, foreign trade, market factors, and characteristics, and forecast its development; to analyze the correlation between fertilizer consumption, arable land scale, cereal yield; to study the phenomenon of mineral fertilizer consumption in Russia. The paper answers the question, where is the fertilizer consumption concentrated, and why? The defined market producers are China, Russia; the global consumers are Brazil, India, China, and the USA. The countries with the highest cereal yield in the world do not coincide with the largest fertilizer consumer countries. Cereal yield and the level of fertilizer application per hectare of arable land in the most significant mineral fertilizer consumer countries are not directly correlated. The countries with the highest cereal yield are mostly well developed with relatively small arable lands. Most of them have soil which is unsuitable for farming. When arable land scale (hectares) rises on 1%, the fertilizer consumption increases by 0.7%, with a probability of 99%. According to this model, Russia consumes 10 569 thousand tons of its estimated volume. The data were classified using Excel and analyzed via econometric modeling software Eviews.