LA VOLATILIDAD EN EL PRECIO DE LOS ALIMENTOS DE LA CANASTA BÁSICA EN SEIS ENTIDADES DE MÉXICO (2018-2022)

Abstract

The objective of this article was to estimate the persistence of volatility for products comprising the basic food basket in Mexico (2018-2022) under a crisis and high inflation scenario. Conditional autoregressive family models with heteroskedasticity (ARCH) were used to estimate volatility and its impact on supply and demand decisions. Data from the National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) for 24 food items in six states with high poverty levels were used. The results indicate a high persistence of volatility (greater than 0.50) for basic food basket products, such as cereals, low-cost protein (chicken and eggs), and vegetables (red tomatoes and potatoes).