Spatial modeling on land use change in regional scale of Java Island based-on biophysical characteristics

Abstract

This study discusses a biophysical-based spatial modeling for land use change in Java Island considering neighborhood interactions between land use types and the change area. These neighborhood characteristics used in logistic regression model to estimate the probability of the change events occurrence. Moreover, the future role of land use change is then projected using the Markov model based on the annual land use changes map. The results indicate that paddy rice with irrigation system (double cropping), especially in upland areas has a high positive spatial autocorrelation with the change areas. Residential area, paddy rice, and upland with intensive cropping have a high effect to the probability of change occurrence. Meanwhile, barren lands/dry land, bush-shrub and mixed garden give a negative correlation to the change occurrences in agricultural lands. In the case of forestland, the results show some land use types such as upland with intensive cropping and plantation have positive contribution to the change of land. The accuracy of the model was also assessed through comparison the projection with the actual area. The results indicate that the future role of each land use type is different based on the trend period predictor in the model.