Transformative ocean observing for hurricane forecasting, readiness, and response in the caribbean tropical storm corridor

Abstract

The upper ocean in the Western Tropical Atlantic tropical storm corridor—including the Caribbean Sea—is under-sampled and climatologically warming (Figure 1). Regionally varying Essential Ocean Features impacting tropical cyclone dynamics include fresh water upper ocean layers, mesoscale eddies, high Upper Ocean Heat Content values, and inflows from the Subtropical and Equatorial Atlantic. Ongoing research indicates that hurricane intensity forecasts can be improved with expanded and sustained ocean data collection and utilization along the hurricane path. This proposed activity will build supporting physical and social infrastructure and conduct a long-term sampling program in this critical region using gliders, High Frequency Radars (HFR), and developing technologies to provide real-time information resulting in hurricane forecast improvement. Improved forecasts will support new generation of local storm surge/precipitation/wave and coastal impact models and guidance used to directly enhance resilience. The success of this project will depend on the merger of regional scale planning and management AND development of local-level partnerships for implementation. To be sustainable, operational, analytical, and actionable, capability has to exist at the multiple proposed regional system nodes. We will promote expanded education and workforce development using existing partner capabilities, and include an Ocean Observing for SIDS/Developing Economies component. Product and information delivery systems will have local interpretive support and will incorporate local knowledge and expertise. It is our hope that by 2030 our legacy would be successful program to—in the words of the Decade Action Framework—“sustain long-term high-quality observations of marine and coastal environments including human interactions and deliver forecast and decision-support tools.”.