Prediksi Produksi Kelapa Sawit Menggunakan Algoritma Support Vector Regression dan Recurrent Neural Network

Abstract

Oil palm is one of the important plantation crops and a leading commodity in Indonesia. PT. XYZ is a company engaged in receiving Fresh Fruit Bunches (FFB) to be processed into Crude Palm Oil (CPO) and Palm Kernel (PK). So far, the company has conducted statistical analysis with a correction value of 5% - 12% on the production results each month in targeting production results. However, this method is still lacking, because it uses manual calculations and considers estimates from personal experience. Therefore, this research proposes a data mining technique with Support Vector Regression (SVR) and Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) algorithms to predict production output precisely. In this study, testing was carried out on SVR hyperparameters, namely Kernel, C, Gamma, and Epsilon. While in RNN, testing is carried out on the optimizer, and the learning rate. In addition, the window size is also determined through a series of experiments, namely 3, 5, and 7. The comparison results show that the RNN model outperforms SVR with an RMSE value of 0.0928, MAPE of 14.32%, and R2 of 0.6164. The RNN model was then implemented to predict the next 3-month period. The prediction results show that there will be a significant increase in production in the first month, then a slight decrease in the second month, and an increase again in the third month.