Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Based on CEEMDAN-SE and Bidirectional LSTM Neural Network with Markov Chain

Abstract

Accurate wind power data prediction is crucial to increase wind energy usage since wind power data are characterized by uncertainty and randomness, which present significant obstacles to the scheduling of power grids. This paper proposes a hybrid model for wind power prediction based on complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN), sample entropy (SE), bidirectional long short-term memory network (BiLSTM), and Markov chain (MC). First, CEEMDAN is used to decompose the wind power series into a series of subsequences at various frequencies, and then SE is employed to reconstruct the wind power series subsequences to reduce the model’s complexity. Second, the long short-term memory (LSTM) network is optimized, the BiLSTM neural network prediction method is used to predict each reconstruction component, and the results of the different component predictions are superimposed to acquire the total prediction results. Finally, MC is used to correct the model’s total prediction results to increase the accuracy of the predictions. Experimental validation with measured data from wind farms in a region of Xinjiang, and computational results demonstrate that the proposed model can better fit wind power data than other prediction models and has greater prediction accuracy and generalizability for enhancing wind power prediction performance.