Simulation of building damage distribution in downtown Mashiki, Kumamoto, Japan caused by the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake based on site-specific ground motions and nonlinear structural analyses

Abstract

Most of the buildings damaged by the mainshock of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake were concentrated in downtown Mashiki in Kumamoto Prefecture, Japan. We obtained 1D subsurface velocity structures at 535 grid points covering this area based on 57 identified velocity models, used the linear and equivalent linear analyses to obtain site-specific ground motions, and generated detailed distribution maps of the peak ground acceleration and velocity in Mashiki. We determined the construction period of every individual building in the target area corresponding to updates to the Japanese building codes. Finally, we estimated the damage probability by the nonlinear response model of wooden structures with different ages. The distribution map of the estimated damage probabilities was similar to the map of the damage ratios from a field survey, and moderate damage was estimated in the northwest where no damage survey was conducted. We found that both the detailed site amplification and the construction period of wooden houses are important factors for evaluating the seismic risk of wooden structures.