Beyond Electoral Fortunes: The Consolidation of a Far-Right Alignment in Brazil

Abstract

This article analyses the emergence and consolidation of Brazil's far-right political movement under Jair Bolsonaro, focusing on the endurance of his ideological project beyond his 2022 electoral defeat. The study addresses two main research questions: which demographic groups continued to support Bolsonaro between 2018 and 2022, and has Bolsonaro fostered a lasting issue alignment in Brazil that transcends his personal electoral fortunes? To answer these questions, the study employs a tripartite analytical approach, examining electoral volatility, affective evaluations of right-wing candidates, and a decomposition analysis of electoral shifts, drawing on longitudinal public opinion data from the Brazilian Electoral Study and the Face of Democracy survey series. The findings reveal an unprecedented consolidation, where affective evaluations and issue alignment operate as mutually reinforcing processes, creating a multidimensional conservative bloc. The article concludes that Bolsonarism represents a fundamental realignment of Brazilian politics rather than a fleeting electoral phenomenon.