Prognostic value of [18F]-fluoro-deoxy-glucose PET/CT, S100 or MIA for assessment of cancer-associated mortality in patients with high risk melanoma

Abstract

Purpose: To assess the prognostic value of FDG PET/CT compared to the tumor markers S100B and melanoma inhibitory activity (MIA) in patients with high risk melanoma. Methods: Retrospective study in 125 consecutive patients with high risk melanoma that underwent FDG PET/CT for re-staging. Diagnostic accuracy and prognostic value was determined for FDG PET/CT as well as for S100B and MIA. As standard of reference, cytological, histological, PET/CT or MRI follow-up findings as well as clinical follow-up were used. Results: Of 125 patients, FDG PET/CT was positive in 62 patients. 37 (29.6%) patients had elevated S100B (>100 pg/ml) and 24 (20.2%) had elevated MIA (>10 pg/ml) values. Overall specificities for FDG PET/CT, S100B and MIA were 96.8% (95% CI, 89.1% to 99.1%), 85.7% (75.0% to 92.3%), and 95.2% (86.9% to 98.4%), corresponding sensitivities were 96.8% (89.0% to 99.1%), 45.2% (33.4% to 55.5%), and 36.1% (25.2% to 48.6%), respectively. The negative predictive values (NPV) for PET/CT, S100B, and MIA were 96.8% (89.1% to 99.1%), 61.4% (50.9% to 70.9%), and 60.6% (50.8% to 69.7%). The positive predictive values (PPV) were 96.7% (89.0% to 99.1%), 75.7% (59.9% to 86.6%), and 88.0% (70.0% to 95.8%). Patients with elevated S100B- or MIA values or PET/CT positive findings showed a significantly (p<0.001 each, univariate Cox regression models) higher risk of melanoma associated death which was increased 4.2-, 6.5- or 17.2-fold, respectively. Conclusion: PET/CT has a higher prognostic power in the assessment of cancer-associated mortality in melanoma patients compared with S100 and MIA. © 2011 Essler et al.