Improving a Prediction Model for Tunnel Water Inflow Estimation Using LSTM and Bayesian Optimization

Abstract

Water inrush and mud burst disasters pose severe challenges to the safe and efficient construction of underground engineering. Water inflow prediction is closely related to drainage design, disaster prevention and control, and the safety of the surrounding ecological environment. Thus, assessing the water inflow accurately is of importance. This study proposes a Bayesian Optimization-Long Short-Term Memory (BOA-LSTM) recurrent neural network for predicting tunnel water inflow. The model is based on four input parameters, namely tunnel depth (H), groundwater level (h), rock quality designation (RQD), and water-richness (W), with water inflow (WI) as the single-output variable. The model first processes and analyzes the data, quantitatively characterizing the correlations between input parameters. The tunnel water inflow is predicted using the long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural network, and the Bayesian optimization algorithm (BOA) is employed to select the hyperparameters of the LSTM, primarily including the number of hidden layer units, initial learning rate, and L2 regularization coefficient. The modeling process incorporates a five-fold cross-validation strategy for dataset partitioning, which effectively mitigates overfitting risks and enhances the model’s generalization capability. After a comprehensive comparison among a series of machine learning models, including a long short-term memory recurrent neural network (LSTM), random forest (RF), back propagation neural network (BP), extreme learning machine (ELM), radial basis function neural network (RBFNN), least squares support vector machine (LIBSVM), and convolutional neural network (CNN), BOA-LSTM performed excellently. The proposed BOA-LSTM model substantially surpasses the standard LSTM and other comparative models in tunnel water inflow prediction, demonstrating superior performance in both accuracy and generalization. Hence, it provides a reference basis for tunnel engineering water inflow prediction.