Effects of Hydrological Drought Periods on Thermal Stability of Brazilian Reservoirs

Abstract

Droughts can impact ecosystem services provided by reservoirs. Quantifying the intensity of droughts and evaluating their potential effects on the thermal stability of reservoirs are subjects that demand greater attention, due to both the importance of temperature on aquatic metabolism and the climate change scenarios that predict an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events. This study aimed to investigate drought periods in ten Brazilian reservoirs and to discuss their effects on each reservoir’s thermal stability. The Standardized Precipitation Index at a twelve month timescale (SPI-12) was applied to identify the hydrological drought periods. One-dimensional vertical hydrodynamic modeling was used to simulate the water balance and the thermal dynamics in the reservoirs. Schmidt Stability Index (St) was calculated to assess the thermal stability of the reservoirs. The drought periods identified by the SPI-12 are related to decreasing water levels of the reservoirs, but the dam operating strategies and the upstream influence of cascading reservoirs are important drivers of fluctuations. A significant difference in St between wet and dry conditions was found only during summer for all reservoirs. Thus, this study identified alterations in thermal regime during drought periods according to the seasons and the reservoirs characteristics.