An evaluation framework for operational interventions on urban mass public transport during a pandemic

Abstract

Decision making in a rapidly changing context, such as the development and progression of a pandemic, requires a dynamic assessment of multiple variable and competing factors. Seemingly beneficial courses of action can rapidly fail to deliver a positive outcome as the context changes. In this paper, we present a flexible data-driven agent-based simulation framework that considers multiple outcome criteria to increase opportunities for safe mobility and economic interactions on urban transit networks while reducing the potential for Covid-19 contagion in a dynamic setting. Using a case study of the Victoria line on the London Underground, we model a number of operational interventions with varied demand levels and social distancing constraints including: alterations to train headways, dwell times, signalling schemes, and train paths. Our model demonstrates that substantial performance gains ranging from 12.3–195.7% can be achieved in metro service provision when comparing the best performing operational scheme and headway with those realised on the Victoria line during the pandemic.