Range size predicts the risk of local extinction from habitat loss

Abstract

Aim: The geographical range size of species is a strong predictor of vulnerability to global extinction. However, it remains unclear whether range size is also a good predictor of extinction risk at much smaller scales. Here, we reconstruct biodiversity time series to ask whether species with small ranges have declined preferentially with habitat loss at the local scale. Location: Global. Time period: 1500–2015. Major taxa studied: Vascular plants. Method: We collated 70 million occurrence records of 180,000 species of vascular plants from three biodiversity data-sharing networks. We combined these with data on changes in global land use to find locations (0.25° grid cells) with biodiversity data before and after loss of natural habitat. First, we examined the change in community median range size before and after habitat loss. Second, we quantified the probabilities of local persistence of small- and large-ranged species at different levels of habitat loss. Results: Community median range size was higher after habitat loss, on average. Species with small ranges had lower probabilities of persistence than species with large ranges at already moderate habitat loss (≤50%). Main conclusions: The loss of natural habitat has a differential effect on the local extinction risk of species with different range sizes. Given that species with small ranges decline preferentially, habitat loss can create a linkage between temporal and spatial species turnover, in that changes within communities decrease compositional differences between communities.