Zoning the territory of the Republic of Kazakhstan as to the risk of rabies among various categories of animals

Abstract

This paper presents the zoning of the territory of the Republic of Kazakhstan with respect to the risk of rabies outbreaks in domestic and wild animals considering environmental and climatic conditions. The national database of rabies outbreaks in Kazakhstan in the period 2003-2014 has been accessed in order to find which zones are consistently most exposed to the risk of rabies in animals. The database contains information on the cases in demes of farm livestock, domestic animals and wild animals. To identify the areas with the highest risk of outbreaks, we applied the maximum entropy modelling method. Designated outbreaks were used as input presence data, while the bioclim set of ecological and climatic variables, together with some geographic factors, were used as explanatory variables. The model demonstrated a high predictive ability. The area under the curve for farm livestock was 0.782, for domestic animals -0.859 and for wild animals - 0.809. Based on the model, the map of integral risk was designed by following four categories: negligible risk (disease-free or favourable zone), low risk (surveillance zone), medium risk (vaccination zone), and high risk (unfavourable zone). The map was produced to allow developing a set of preventive measures and is expected to contribute to a better distribution of supervisory efforts from the veterinary service of the country.