Predictors of biochemical failure in patients undergoing prostate whole-gland salvage cryotherapy: A novel risk stratification model

Abstract

Objective To assess the prognostic variables predicting the risk of biochemical progression-free survival (bPFS) after salvage prostate whole-gland cryotherapy using the Phoenix definition of bPFS. Patients and Methods A total of 132 patients underwent prostate whole-gland salvage cryotherapy with curative intent. No patient underwent neoadjuvant/adjuvant hormonal ablative therapy, and all had extended post-salvage prostate-specific antigen (PSA) follow-up data. Cox univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses of potential predictors of bPFS were conducted. Kaplan-Meier analyses of bPFS was also performed. Results At a mean (range) follow-up of 4.3 (0.9-12.7) years, the median (range) post-cryotherapy nadir PSA achieved was 0.17 (0-33.9) ng/mL. On multivariate analysis, predictors of bPFS were nadir PSA post-cryotherapy and pre-salvage biopsy Gleason score (P < 0.001 and 0.009, respectively). Risk stratification groups (low, intermediate and high) were developed based on the presence of zero, one or two adverse risk factors, the risk factors being either a nadir PSA >2.5 ng/mL or biopsy Gleason score ≥7, with the Kaplan-Meier bPFS curves of these risk groups being significantly different (P = 0.02 and <0.001, respectively). Conclusions Post-salvage nadir PSA and pre-salvage biopsy Gleason score are important predictors of outcome in this patient cohort. Low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups can be determined based on these variables and can define patients best suited for prostate cryotherapy. © 2013 BJU International.