Potential impacts of future climate change on nyala Tragelaphus angasi in Lengwe National Park, Malawi

Abstract

General Circulation Models (GCMs) were used to develop climate change scenarios for the Lengwe National Park in Malawi. Scenarios of future precipitation and ambient temperature were in turn used to evaluate habitat suitability of 5 ungulate populations and to rank their vulnerability to global climate change in the park. Preliminary results suggest that ambient temperatures may rise with a doubling of atmospheric CO2, and precipitation will be more variable. The vulnerability assessment results suggest that all the ungulates, especially nyala antelope Tragelaphus angasi, could be highly susceptible to climate induced changes in habitat and food supply. Adaptive measures, such as translocation, culling, and expanding the water supply, may alleviate climatic change impacts on nyala and other ungulates.