Comparative Study of Observed and Projected Future Climate Evolution in Two Watersheds (Souss-Massa and Ouergha, Morocco) Using the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM)

Abstract

The hydrological cycle and local climate of a region are directly impacted by climate change. Rapid fluctuations in climate alter weather patterns, resulting in the occurrence of extreme weather phenomena. This study examines two basins situated in distinct regions of Morocco, each influenced by specific climatic conditions. The primary aim of this study is to examine the climatic changes occurring within the two watersheds. Initially, it involves a comparative analysis of annual precipitation and temperatures from 1982 to 2022. Subsequently, the study projects precipitation and temperatures for the period spanning from 2024 to 2100. This analysis relies on data collected from 13 stations, 8 in the Souss-Massa and 5 in the Ouergha regions, using the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) version 4.2.9. The investigation employs the fourth generation coupled global climate model CanESM2. Precipitation data and historical temperature models are used to forecast future temperatures and precipitation, based on Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios 4.5 and 8.5. The projected scenarios indicate a decrease in observed precipitation for the years 2040, 2060, and 2080, while temperatures are predicted to rise in both watersheds across all future scenarios.