Atmospheric CO2 source and sink patterns over the Indian region

Abstract

In this paper we examine CO2 emission hot spots and sink regions over India as identified from global model simulations during the period 2000-2009. CO2 emission hot spots overlap with locations of densely clustered thermal power plants, coal mines and other industrial and urban centres; CO2 sink regions coincide with the locations of dense forest. Fossil fuel CO2 emissions are compared with two bottom-up inventories: the Regional Emission inventories in ASia (REAS v1.11; 2000-2009) and the Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR v4.2) (2000-2009). Estimated fossil fuel emissions over the hot spot region are ∼ 500-950gCmg-2yr-1 as obtained from the global model simulation, EDGAR v4.2 and REAS v1.11 emission inventory. Simulated total fluxes show increasing trends, from 1.39±1.01%yr 1 (19.8±1.9TgCyr-1) to 6.7±0.54%yr-1 (97±12TgCyr-1) over the hot spot regions and decreasing trends of-0.95±1.51%yr-1 (-1±2TgCyr-1) to-5.7±2.89%yr-1 (-2.3±2TgCyr-1) over the sink regions. Model-simulated terrestrial ecosystem fluxes show decreasing trends (increasing CO2 uptake) over the sink regions. Decreasing trends in terrestrial ecosystem fluxes imply that forest cover is increasing, which is consistent with India State of Forest Report (2009). Fossil fuel emissions show statistically significant increasing trends in all the data sets considered in this study. Estimated trend in simulated total fluxes over the Indian region is ∼ 4.72±2.25%yr-1 (25.6TgCyr-1) which is slightly higher than global growth rate ∼ 3.1%yr-1 during 2000-2010.