Scenarios for adaptation and mitigation in urban Africa under 1.5 °C global warming

Abstract

Cities are considered to be at the frontline of the global climate change response, both from mitigation and adaptation perspectives. But many cities are engulfed in infrastructure deficits, carbon intensive development while urban poverty adds to this complexity in Africa. Africa's rapid urbanisation is coming with opportunities and challenges but the contribution of this urbanization to limit global warming at 1.5 degrees requires new knowledge on the interactions between adaptation and mitigation. Climate impacts on African cities are growing, with spatially differentiated warming of between 0.3 and 0.7 degrees. Rainfall redistribution and excessive rainstorms have impacted African cities in various ways. Many of the African cities are, however responding to the challenges through the formulation of adaptation plans, mitigation strategies with a strong focus on resilience and sustainable development — as outlined in the African Union's Agenda 2063. Given that most cities in Africa are low emitting cities, this paper discusses how adaptation and mitigation can be coupled using three scenarios in the context of 1.5-degree warming. It is also recognized that the different ecologies of Africa offer multiple possible pathways of adaptation and mitigation for increased African urban resilience.