Incidence, predictive factors, clinical characteristics and outcome of non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding – a prospective population-based study from hungary

Abstract

Background & Aims: Acute non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Our aim was to evaluate the incidence, management, risk factors and outcomes of acute non-variceal UGIB in a population-based study from Hungary. Methods: The present prospective one–year study involved six major community hospitals in Western Hungary covering a population of 1,263,365 persons between January 1 and December 31, 2016. Data collection included demographics, comorbidities endoscopic management, Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS), Rockall score (RS) transfusion requirements, length of hospital stay and mortality. Results: 688 cases of acute non-variceal UGIB were included with an incidence rate of 54.4 (95%CI: 50.5-58.6) per 100,000 per year. Endoscopy was performed within 12 hours in 71.8%. 5.3% of the patients required surgical treatment and the overall mortality was 13.5%. Weekend presentation was associated with increased transfusion requirements (p=0.047), surgery (p=0.016) and mortality (p=0.021). Presentation with hemodynamic instability or presence of comorbidities was associated with transfusion (p<0.001 both), second look endoscopy (p<0.001 both), re-bleeding (p<0.001 both), longer in-hospital stay (p<0.001 both) and mortality (p=0.017 and p<0.001). GBS was associated with transfusion requirement (AUC:0.82; cut-off: GBS >7points), while mortality was best predicted by the post-endoscopic RS (AUC:0.75; cut-off: RS >5points). Conclusions: Incidence rates of acute non-variceal UGIB in Western Hungary are in line with international trends. Longer pre-hospital time, comorbidities, hemodynamic instability, weekend presentation, treatment with anticoagulants or non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs was associated with worse outcomes.