Evaluation of the expected climatic conditions regarding cherry production in central Hungary

Abstract

Production possibilities and risks of a given plant are basically determined by climatic factors. Expected future climate is modelled by several climate scenarios. In this study results of the RegCM3 model downscaled to the Carpathian Basin were used. This paper focuses on the climatic conditions of cherry production in Central Hungary in three time periods: 1961-1990 as a base, 2021-2050 as the near future and 2071-2100 for the long-term analysis. Results show that in the near future fruit cracking risk could be higher, but in overall the expected changes are mostly favourable for cherry production. By the end of the century irrigation may be required for the secure and quality cherry production. It is also advised to re-evaluate the varieties according to the indicated changes, as a new orchard planted nowadays will have many productive years in the second period. © 2011, ALÖKI Kft., Budapest, Hungary.