Marine geohazards exposed: Uncertainties involved

Abstract

By exhaustively reviewing the literature related to marine geohazards, this paper reports on their uncertainties. Examples of marine geohazards include submarine landslides, fluid flows in the underground, scour events, and seabed gouging by ice. Key uncertain variables of interest to marine geohazard assessments are identified and structured by relating a framework defining the main generic components of any risk description to the task of describing risk in the marine geohazards field. Furthermore, issues related to the sources of uncertainty are scrutinised and some recommendations on how to address the identified large uncertainties in geohazard risk assessments are made. Specific considerations are proposed for analysing geohazards in the Arctic, where exploration and development activities are currently regaining momentum. Ultimately, based on the large uncertainties identified, we also strive to identify knowledge gaps to orientate scientific research efforts in the field of marine geohazards.