Ex post impact assessment of master plans — The case of Shenzhen in shaping a polycentric urban structure

Abstract

This study of ex post impact assessment aims to review the lessons learned from the implementation of previous master plans in the case study city of Shenzhen (China) in order to provide evidence-based input for the possible integration of impact assessment in future master planning in Shenzhen and other world cities, particularly in developing and emerging countries. The paper uses GIS data to derive maps for the visualization of spatial developmental patterns with complementary quantitative analysis for the spatial-temporal impact assessment. The ex post impact assessment shows that the master plans of Shenzhen have successfully guided urban development towards a polycentric spatial structure. Regarding the data used in the study, Global Human Settlement Layer (GSHL) is a valuable dataset that is generally suited to assessing the urban development pattern. The time series mapping of growth in built-up areas as well as population and built-up intensity mapping based on time specific categorization supplemented by the quantitative assessment of high urban concentrations (hUCs) based on time specific thresholding allows the identification of development patterns over a long period of time.