Os efeitos do Programa Bolsa Família sobre a duração do emprego formal dos indivíduos de baixa renda

Abstract

This article uses microdata from the Unified Registry of Social Programs (CadUnico) and the Annual Social Information Report (Rais) to examine the duration of employment for families receiving benefits from the Bolsa Família Program. To achieve this goal, Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate the job duration for beneficiaries and non-beneficiaries of the program using a database of more than three million people. The findings indicate that the risk of leaving work among beneficiaries of the Bolsa Família Program is 7% to 10% lower than the risk for non-beneficiaries. Parametric models were also adjusted to verify robustness, producing results equivalent to those of the Cox model. In all cases, participation in the program was observed through a covariate that varies over time, extracted directly from the program’s payment records.