A Mathematical Model of Bioterrorist Attack Risk Assessment

Abstract

The authors propose a bioterrorism risk assessment model comprising 22 qualitative and 10 quantitative parameters. Scores 0 and 1 refer to low and high probability of a bioterrorist attack, respectively. Vulnerability analysis is related to targets, while feasibility analysis refers to perpetrators, agents and means/media of delivery. The model is applied on the US anthrax attack in 2001. Mathematical modeling is also proposed to express the risk of human losses in a bioterrorist attack. The model may be helpful in predicting and preventing bioterrorist attacks.