Impact of Climate-Driven Land-Use Change on O3 and PM Pollution by Driving BVOC Emissions in China in 2050

Abstract

This study predicted three future land-use type scenarios in 2050 (including the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP126, SSP585, and carbon scenario) based on the Land-Use Harmonization (LUH2) project and the future evolution of land-use types considering China’s carbon neutrality background. The contribution of land-use changes to terrestrial natural source biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs), as well as O3 and PM concentrations, were determined. Under the SSP126 pathway, meteorological changes would increase BVOC emissions in China by 1.0 TgC in 2050, compared with 2015, while land-use changes would increase them by 1.5–7.1 TgC. The impact of land-use changes on O3 and PM concentrations would be less than 3.6% in 2050 and greater in summer. Regional differences must be considered when calculating future environmental background concentrations of pollutants. Due to more afforestation measures under the SSP126 scenario, the impact of land-use change on pollutants was more obvious under the SSP126 pathway than under the SSP585 pathway. Under the carbon scenario, the increase in PM concentration caused by land-use changes would pose a risk to air quality compliance; thus, it is necessary to consider reducing or offsetting this potential risk through anthropogenic emission control measures.