Estimation urban railway demand in Yogyakarta using Bivariate Ordered Probit Model

Abstract

The urban railway system is believed to solve transportation problems caused by the high growth of private vehicles and urbanization. This study is going to analyze the potential demand for the urban railway in Yogyakarta, Indonesia based on bivariate ordered probit model. The survey of preference stated with 120 samples conducted in Yogyakarta. The model of train demand is distinguished between public transport users and private vehicle users using seven scenarios. In-train travel time, waiting time, tariff, and ticketing discount for students are four factors considered in the model. The demand model shows that in-train travel time is the most important factor influence for train demand. Meanwhile, the scenario result reveals that respondents except student are willing to pay more to obtain shorter travel time, students who use private vehicle are reluctant to shift into the train, and ticketing discount brings no effect to stimulate them to use the train.