The Resilience of the Russian Regional Economies to the 2020 Pandemic

Abstract

Abstract—: This study is devoted to assessing the economic resilience of Russian regions to the 2020 pandemic and analyzing its factors. The resilience of the regional economies is evaluated using a set of per capita indicators, such as budget revenues and household incomes, production in the main sectors of the economy, and investment in fixed assets. Two alternative methods for assessing the resilience of a region to an external shock are applied, that is, the modified method of R. Martin and R. Lagravinese based on a comparison of regional trends with nationwide ones and the author’s approach based on a comparison of pandemic indicators with nonpandemic forecasts for the region. All particular resilience indicators are normalized and reduced to an integral indicator. The study revealed the most significant resilience to the pandemic of some underdeveloped Russian regions, which received substantial government support, and several border territories and Far Eastern regions, which benefited from the increase in metal prices. The lowest resilience was observed in more developed and larger economies and the centers of mining industry. The calculation of correlations between resilience indices and regional development indicators confirmed that the sectoral and institutional structure of the economy affect its resistance to the shock. By constructing an econometric model estimated by the ordinary least squares method, we confirmed the positive impact made by the share of employment in government-owned and municipal enterprises and the negative impact of the degree of openness, the size of the economy, and the share of the mining industry on the regional economic resilience. The conducted research is applicable for developing a balanced inter-budgetary, regional, and sectoral policy in the context of economic crises of a pandemic type.