Short Term Load Forecasting for Electric Power Utilities: A Generalized Regression Approach Using Polynomials and Cross-Terms †

Abstract

With the emergence of advanced computational technologies, the capacity to process data for developing machine learning-based predictive models has increased multifold. However, reliance on the model’s mere accuracy has swiftly shifted attention away from its interpretability. Resultantly, a need has emerged amongst forecasters and academics to have predictive models that are not only accurate but also interpretable as well. Therefore, to facilitate energy forecasters, this paper advances the knowledge of short-term load forecasting through generalized regression analysis using high degree polynomials and cross terms. To predict the irregularly changing energy demand at the consumer level, the proposed model uses a time series of an hourly load of three years of an electricity distribution company in Pakistan. Two variants of regression analysis are used: (a) generalized linear regression model (GLRM), and (b) generalized linear regression model with polynomials and cross-terms (GLRM-PCT) for comparative reasons. Experiments revealed that GLRM-PCT showed higher forecasting accuracy across a variety of performance metrics such as mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), mean absolute error (MAE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and r-squared values. Moreover, the enhanced interpretability of GLRM-PCT also explained a wide range of combinations of weather variables, public holidays, as well as lagged load and climatic variables.