Integrating Species Distribution Models to Identify Overlapping Predator–Prey Conservation Priorities in Misiones, Argentina

Abstract

Misiones province covers < 1% of Argentina’s land area yet harbors > 50% of the country’s biodiversity, with a significant remnant of Atlantic Forest, a global biodiversity hotspot. Approximately 540,000 ha of this native forest is protected, with the remaining areas facing threats from ongoing land conversion, an expanding road network, and a growing rural population. A prior study incorporated noninvasive data on five carnivores into a multifaceted cost analysis to define the optimal location for a multispecies biological corridor, with the goal of enhancing landscape connectivity among protected areas. Subsequent analyses, with an updated framework, emphasized management strategies that balanced human–wildlife coexistence and habitat needs. Building on these efforts, our study applied ecological niche modeling to data located by conservation detection dogs, with genetics used to confirm species identity, and two land-use scenarios, to predict potential distributions of three game species—lowland tapir (Tapirus terrestris), white-lipped peccary (Tayassu pecari), and collared peccary (Pecari tajacu)—that are not only threatened by poaching, road mortality, and habitat loss but also serve as essential prey for carnivores. We assessed the suitability of unique and overlapping vegetation types, within and outside of protected areas, as well as within this multispecies corridor, identifying zones of high conservation concern that underscore the need for integrated planning of predators and prey. These results highlight that ensuring the long-term viability of wildlife across the heterogeneous land-use matrices of Misiones requires going beyond protected areas to promote functional connectivity, restore degraded habitats, and balance human–wildlife needs.