Modeling of Decision Process Featuring Inverse Bayesian Inference

Abstract

The model of human's decision process by Bayesian Inference cannot represent the sudden change of the decision manner. Featuring novel Inverse Bayesian Inference, we modeled the decision process including sudden change, and evaluated the effectiveness through psychological experiments. In the experiment, the subjects progress in zigzag toward the goal in virtual 3D space by selecting the left or right. As a result, many unreasonable and sudden change decisions are observed. We show our model of decision process featuring Inverse Bayesian Inference can represent such a sudden change. We also examined examples applied to trends in stock prices and the influence of parameters of Inverse Bayesian inference.