Uso estratégico de eleições alternadas? Efeitos da candidatura para prefeito sobre a votação dos concorrentes ao cargo de deputado federal no Brasil

Abstract

This article analyzes the use of candidacies for higher political offices, not only as evidence of progressive ambition, but also as a source of electoral benefits for the candidate. The argument is that alternating elections for different level positions in the federative system permit that even candidates who lost in mayoral races to take advantage of campaign coverage later in the race for a seat in the Chamber of Deputies. The hypothesis that this electoral return exists is tested by applying linear and maximum likelihood models on data from Brazilian federal deputy elections in 2010, taking into account their performance in 2006 and whether or not they ran for mayor in 2008. Results show that there are considerable late electoral benefits even for those who lost mayoral elections.