On Modeling the Social-Psychological Foundations of Support for Donald Trump

Abstract

Scholars have identified many social-psychological factors correlated with support for Donald Trump; however, attempts at modeling these factors tend to suffer from omitted variable bias on the one hand, or multicollinearity on the other. Both issues obscure inferences. Using two nationally representative surveys, we demonstrate the perils of including or failing to include many of these factors in models of Trump support. We then reconceptualize the social-psychological sources of Trump support as components of a broader “profile” of factors that explains Trump support in 2018 and vote choice in 2016, as well as attitudes about issues connected to Trump. Moreover, this profile—an amalgamation of attitudes about, for example, racial groups, immigrants, and political correctness—rivals partisanship and ideology as predictors of Trump support and is negatively related to support for mainstream Republican candidates. Our analyses suggest that Trump benefited from activating dimensions of public opinion that transcend traditional party cleavages.