ANALISIS PERILAKU INSTABILITAS PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA: PENDEKATAN KETERKAITAN EKONOMI MAKRO, PERDAGANGAN INTERNASIONAL DAN SEKTOR PERTANIAN

Abstract

In general the aim of this study is  to investigate short-run relationships among macroeconomy, international trade and agriculture in Indonesia. Under such circumstances, the specific goals of this research is to analyze whicheconomic blocks that have most affected by instability, as well as producing instability in the economy.We apply the Vector Error Correction Model on monthly series data from 1993:01 to 2002:12. The main resultof this study shows asfollow: 1) that the asset financial and the commodity demand blocks the most producing instability in the economy. On the other hand, the export block producing the least instability to the economy. The finding suggest that government should concentrate attention on asset financial andthe commodity demand blocks in stabilizing the economy, as they are major sources of instability of the economy.2) To stabilize the commodity demand, it is also necessary to stabilize the financial market, as the assets demand block is the most contributor of the instability in the commodity demand block. In other words, money demand is the main source of instability. Because money supply is determined bygovernment, the disequlibrium error measure the excess supply of money in the market. This suggest that monetary policy that reduces the disequlibrium error can help stabilize the economy.JEL Classification: C22, F17, Q11, Q18Keyword: Instabilitas,  Disequilibrium Error,  perdagangan internasional, pertanian, VECM, fiscal policy