Early warning systems and end-user decision-making: A risk formalism tool to aid communication and understanding

Abstract

In this work, we introduce a formalism to highlight the role of decision-making implicit in the setup of early warning systems (EWSs) and its consequences with respect to loss avoidance for end users. The formalism, a close relative of the cost/loss approach, combines EWS verification scores with traditional expressions of risk from the point of view of the user. This formalism articulates in mathematical format many well-known issues surrounding EWS usage, offering a conceptual anchor for concepts that otherwise may seem to wobble among the multidisciplinary perspectives participating in the EWS chain. This decision model is visually represented in a variation of the popular “performance diagram” used in forecast and warning verification. Our diagram adds to this the perspective of a generic user, in an effort to gain insight into how choices made regarding EWS settings may determine which users benefit from warnings and which do not. Although these results are based on a conceptual model, they are useful to better understand the actual benefits experienced by users and to highlight aspects that may temper unrealistic expectations on EWSs. The recent United Nations initiative to extend EWSs for natural hazards to all nations within 5 years will make EWSs more common and more public. The approach proposed here can be a tool to promote greater transparency and improve the necessary dialog between warning issuers and users in order to reduce loss.