Turkey as a middle power in Central Asia: regional cooperation amid geopolitical competition with Russia, China, and the United States

Abstract

Introduction: Amid the transformation of the global order and intensified Eurasian competition, Turkey has expanded its engagement with Central Asia through connectivity diplomacy, identity-based multilateralism, and selective security and economic cooperation. This article argues that Turkey’s regional strategy is best understood as middle power diplomacy driven by strategic autonomy. Methods: The study triangulates institutional and documentary analysis with an original cross-sectional perception survey (2023–2024), used as exploratory evidence. Results: Central Asia functions for Turkey as a low-to-moderate cost arena to operationalize strategic autonomy while avoiding direct confrontation with dominant regional actors. Turkey’s leverage stems from the combination of connectivity initiatives aligned with regional diversification interests, soft-power infrastructure (education, cultural production, humanitarian visibility), and targeted defence-industrial cooperation that complements the existing security hierarchy. These practices are linked to domestic debates in Turkey over pan-Turkic identity narratives, the limits of socio-political Islam in external outreach, and Ankara’s contested relationship with Europe and the wider West. Discussion: The findings indicate that Turkey’s influence in Central Asia is conditional and layered: it grows where identity and connectivity are translated into institutional routines and business networks, but remains constrained by Russia’s entrenched security role, China’s geo-economic scale, and uneven regional receptivity.