From Rallies to Riots: Why Some Protests Become Violent

Abstract

When do nonviolent protests escalate into violence? Existing literature has focused primarily on campaign-level escalations and only recently has work begun to examine protest event-level escalations. We build on this emerging literature and develop an argument for why some protests escalate to violence. We use statistical analysis and find that violent escalations are more likely to occur following recent repression and when protests are unorganized. Our results offer insight into the conditions in which protests remain peaceful and offer citizens a channel to pursue their goals as well as the conditions in which protests become violent and destabilizing.