Using Maximum Entropy Algorithm to Analyze Current and Future Distribution of the Asian hornet, Vespa velutina, in Europe and North Africa Under Climate Change Conditions

Abstract

The Asian hornet, Vespa velutina, has invaded Europe during the last few years. This hornet is a dangerous pest to honey bee colonies and can cause significant economic damages. In this study, current and future distributions of this pest in Europe and North Africa were analyzed using maximum entropy algorithm. Different environmental factors were used in the Maxent model to predict the suitability of the study area for this pest. Two future models with two Shared Socio-economic Pathways (126 and 585) were used to estimate the future distribution of V. velutina in 2050. The Maxent model for V. velutina showed high performance based on the analysis of omission/commission rates and the area under curve. Jackknife test showed the high importance of temperature variables in V. velutina distribution. The model maps indicated the potential invasion of this pest to other areas in Europe and North Africa including deserts in Libya and Egypt. Negative consequences of such invasion on beekeeping and environmental balance are expected.