The Problem of the “Shiʻa Crescent” in the Middle East: A Quantitative Analysis

Abstract

The relevance of this research is due to the unabated interest of the international community in the struggle for regional leadership between Iran and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), which has unfolded in the Middle East for a number of years. The growing concerns of the KSA and its geopolitical allies, the United States and the small Arabian monarchies, related to the increasing influence of Iran on the military-political situation in Syria and Iraq, have raised in international discourse the question of the reality or impossibility of creating the so-called “Shiʻa crescent” under the auspices of Tehran. The idea is to unite the states of the Middle East, in which Shiʻa Muslims constitute the vast majority or a significant minority of the population, which would ensure Iran’s decisive victory in the race for dominance in the region. However, until now, the question of a quantitative assessment of the real resources of the states included in the “Shiʻa crescent” has so far remained out of researchers’ sight. In this regard, the aim of this article is to prove the absence of economic and military-political prerequisites for the formation of the “Shiʻa crescent” by using the method of quantitative indicators from databases, rankings and indices and a network analysis of conventional arms supplies within the “Sunni” and “Shiʻa” blocs. The databases of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), the World Trade Organization (WTO), the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the United Nations Register of Conventional Arms, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Doing Business, Human Capital, Global Firepower, Global Terrorism, and Global Peace rankings, as well as World Bank statistical reports served as an empirical basis for the research. The theoretical and methodological basis of the study was constructive realism, which takes into account both quantitative indicators and the ideological and value attitudes of the state in the analysis of international relations. The study showed that the “Shiʻa crescent” is a purely propaganda construct, and cannot become a real interstate association.